The Turkey Industry May Be Stuffed This Thanksgiving
Written by: Tyler Casper
A stuffed turkey is a sight which is found across millions of households throughout America on Thanksgiving, although with the Coronavirus remaining a fear for many Americans, and a sharp decrease in the size of Thanksgiving parties likely as a result, some fear that the mouth-watering image of the turkey may be missing from many Thanksgiving dinners this year. However, despite the shrinkage of many family gatherings, experts and store owners alike believe it is more likely that turkey will remain a common sight across many dining rooms throughout the nation, and may even experience higher sales than usual.
There are several factors which could indicate a rise in turkey sales this year. First, the interest for cooking and baking has increased during the Pandemic, and as such, there could be an increase in demand for ingredients (like turkeys) as more people try to cook a traditional Thanksgiving meal themselves. This is especially important because the number of Thanksgiving celebrations is predicted to rise drastically as larger Thanksgiving celebrations with multiple families are replaced by a larger number of smaller celebrations with fewer families. For example, instead of having one large Thanksgiving celebration with three families and only one turkey at my grandparents’ house, there will likely be three Thanksgiving celebrations with three different turkeys. This larger number of Thanksgiving dinners should result in a demand for more turkeys. In fact, according to economic journalist Megan Leonhardt of CNBC, some supermarkets are so confident that there will be an increase in turkey sales that they plan on slightly increasing the price for turkey as Thanksgiving approaches, which has resulted in an increase in the average price to $22.90. Increasing the price on turkey would be highly unusual, as the price is generally lowered before the holiday, to act as an enticement for the consumer to purchase other complementary goods, such as stuffing, cranberry sauce, and other common Thanksgiving foods. A willingness to increase the price of turkey illustrates the producers’ belief that turkey demand will increase among consumers, as an increase in price combined with a decrease in demand would result in an extreme drop in sales.
Still, while most experts and store owners are confident that turkeys will remain a constant in most thanksgiving meals, there are some indicators that the turkeys may not fly off the shelves. According to journalist Kim Severson of the New York Times, many families across the US have suffered severe decreases in income over the Pandemic, and many others face unemployment, and while producers believe the demand for turkey is largely inelastic, the large drop in income for many families may lead to a fall in sales in spite of the inelastic demand for turkey. However, most experts and store owners are confident that the drop in income will be offset by an increase in demand due to more thanksgiving parties and a larger interest in cooking in general.
Overall, although a fall in turkey sales may appear insignificant compared to the other damage the coronavirus has caused to the US economy, the turkey industry represents a significant portion of the agriculture industry. It is a clear example of an almost perfectly competitive industry; one with a large number of firms who have very little influence over the price of the goods they produce, as well as a lack of barrier walls on the industry as a whole, thus allowing firms to enter the turkey industry should they see the opportunity for economic profit. The turkey industry being almost perfectly competitive matters because it means that the farmers in the industry are at risk of being forced out of the industry if the experts are wrong and demand for turkey is lower than expected, as the price will fall and firms will gradually leave until the price rises back to equilibrium. In a world where many already face unemployment, adding thousands of farmers to the list of those without jobs would only exacerbate the problems caused by said employment and slow the US economic recovery from the Pandemic.
While the stuffed turkey should remain the centerpiece of many Thanksgiving tables this year, a decrease in sales could lead to further unemployment across the nation and slow the economic recovery from the Coronavirus. What do you think will happen to the turkey industry this November? Will your family buy a turkey this year, or has the demand for turkey flown away from your family for this Thanksgiving? Finally, how do you think a decrease in Turkey sales would affect the US economy overall?
Works Cited
Leonhardt, Megan. “Here's How Much Thanksgiving Turkeys Cost At 14 Major Grocery
Chains.” CNBC, CNBC, 20 Nov. 2019, www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/how-much-thanksgiving-turkeys-cost-at-14-major-grocery-chains.html.
Severson, Kim. “A Disrupted Thanksgiving Leaves the Turkey Business Guessing.” The
New York Times, The New York Times, 8 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/dining/thanksgiving-turkey-coronavirus.html.
“Turkey Profile.” Agricultural Marketing Resource Center, Iowa State University, 12 June
2020, www.agmrc.org/commodities-products/livestock/poultry/turkey-profile.
I never really thought about the layers of economics into just the turkey industry around Thanksgiving. I personally don't know what my families plan is for this years feast but farmers are probably even more worried about this years holiday. I think an increase in price would be bad because peoples finances are already stretched but at the same time the farmer still has to make money. It will be interesting to see what happens this year for millions of families across the US trying to celebrate in a pandemic stricken era.
ReplyDeleteI thought your article was very interesting! It is no question that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected our world's financial and social situations. With that being said, I thought it was very interesting that you applied how this panddemic will impact the financial and social impacts of the turkey industry and families around the world who typically get together for Thanksgiving. I thought that it was interesting when you stated that Megan Leonhardt thought there would actually be an increase in turkey sales this year. I wonder if this prediction will be true or not. Good job!
ReplyDeleteI find it very interesting that you made the connection of the pandemic to turkey sales. This is very well thought out and makes scents. The logic of people's attitudes and actions changing in lockdown affecting family gatherings is very sound. I imagine not only turkeys are affected too, I imagine the same is happening to the entire food market.
ReplyDeleteBased on the information you gave, I think the turkey industry will either stay the same or fall. It seems like an increase in price for turkeys, coupled with a possible slight increase in demand would make it grow. But, many families may not be willing to pay the extra price for the turkey due to money concerns from the pandemic. I find the near perfectly competitive turkey market interesting, as you said if too many firms join, thinking their will be a greater demand and more economic profit to go around, that firms will incur a loss. On top of that, I was thinking year to year (in normal years) how many firms join the turkey market just for thanksgiving, given that there is a greater demand and more economic profit and then leave right after.
ReplyDeleteI guess I never really thought about the fact that something so simple as a turkey could almost upturn a whole holiday! I guess we have just been more focused on some of the bigger things in this world to think about something like a turkey which could bring a little sense of normality back into peoples lives. Nice work!
ReplyDeleteI know for a fact that my family is still eating a turkey for a fact, and Coronavirus is not stopping that plan. I think that the turkey industry will not see a decrease in sales because a whole turkey is pretty cheap, the average retail price currently being $30.00 and because of the increase in supply of all types of meats that has happened recently. I really enjoyed this blog post and learning about turkey sales in Covid times.
ReplyDeleteI think that because there are smaller families and people usually don't want a huge amount leftover after Thanksgiving, ideally, larger turkeys would fall in price, while smaller ones would increase in price. However, because retailers sell them by the pound, the chances of larger turkeys costing too expensive would result in some losses for the turkey industry. Additionally, while chicken isn't typically represented by Thanksgiving, it is a more viable alternative this year, where smaller-sized birds are preferred and cost-savings are important. I liked the inclusion of referencing the complementary goods of turkey and the provided point of view from the farmers' side as well.
ReplyDeleteThis is fascinating! It is amazing how many variables affect the price of turkey. It seems nearly impossible to predict, especially with an abnormal event like the Coronavirus. If we go on the assumption that significantly less people are going to gather for Thanksgiving this year, it would make sense that the demand for turkey would increase. I think turkey at Thanksgiving is such an integral part of culture in the United States that not many people will choose other options this year. The Coronavirus has caused economic damage, but I don't think it is enough to have a significant effect on the demand for turkey. I am not qualified to predict what would happen, but from my knowledge of the subject I think it is possible that we will see a turkey shortage in the near future because more families will be buying turkeys for themselves.
ReplyDeleteAmazing work Tyler! I love how you laid out two perspectives and gave your readers the opportunity to form their own prediction - a sort of choose your own adventure haha. I know that my family, and likely many others, will definitely be purchasing a turkey this year. Turkey is nostalgic around Thanksgiving because of my upbringing and culture; people are in great need of nostalgia and the comfort of familiarity during this pandemic, and the turkey is the perfect way to satisfy those needs. I predict that the turkey industry will do very well this year. :)
ReplyDeleteThis piece was awesome!The turkey industry isn't at all something you think of everyday. I was drawn to this piece from the get go and was able to look through multiple perspectives and understand the industry and the impacts on it especially this year. The turkey is incredibly iconic during this time of the year and I'm glad I got some great insight into what you think the future of this industry will be like.
ReplyDeleteGreat work on this piece Tyler, especially the title! I haven't given much thoguht to how the economy would be affected by Thanksgiving, but this has got me thinking about it. Most families don't really settle down for a normal day of dinner and decide to ahve turkey. However, once Thanksgiving roles around, I would assume the demand for turkey would begin to increase a whole lot, which would begin to increase sales and the quantity would increase. BUt, I do imagine that the turkey industry will take a hit after the pandemic. Many people have lost income and eventheir homes due to the pandemic, so turkey would seem like a minimal impact on their spending, so maybe turkey might be skipped this year. As for what I think might happen to the economy, I do think that the industry that produces turkey will be affected, but the overall economy will be fine, or rather affected by bigger factors of the virus. But anyway, I think this was very informative, keep it up!
ReplyDeleteI agree with you in that there will most likely be an increase in demand for turkey this year. I know my family is still getting one. Although some people might believe that the demand will decrease, due to the potential increase in price, people not wanting to due to belief in a shortage, wanting to save money, etc., I think that the tradition is too strong for most people to give up. Also, due to COVID, more college students will be at home with their nuclear families, rather than going to friends' families for Thanksgiving, which is another incentive for families to buy a turkey. Great connections, Tyler.
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking about this! I know a ton of family's who come together on Thanksgiving in large groups! I was wondering how this pandemic would affect the sales of stuffing, turkey, gravy, and anything else. I think the tradition is important but, safety is very important as well.
ReplyDeleteThis post reminds me a lot of Delaney’s post on the dairy industry, and how covid has negatively affected both supply and demand. I liked the connection to the agriculture industry, and I think the turkey industries’ outcome after Thanksgiving will be much different than the typical sales in past years. For instance, you mentioned how there are likely to be more smaller parties and people are inclined to cooking, increasing the demand for turkeys; yet, hosting a thanksgiving meal for a small group can be much more costly and most people can’t commit that much money due to covid’s impact on people’s incomes. I think that turkey sales are likely to increase this year, but I could see it going both ways.
ReplyDeleteThis in my head is a great way to show how the supply and demand curve can change over time and how many variables there are to just turkey. It shows how complex the economy can be and how a global pandemic can change everything. I would be interested to see the prices this year to see if they try and match with demand or if they change things up. Id also be interested in seeing the actual amount of demand with many families not having a turkey for thanksgiving this year
ReplyDeleteThis article is rather interesting, I knew the corona virus would cause changes for everyone during the holidays, but never thought of this affect. You make a good point about higher turkey prices would cause lower sales of turkeys for Thanksgiving, but I think that the increase in price may have been caused by the mayhem in the beginning of the year when people were stocking up on food. I remember seeing the bare toilet paper shelves but also the meat shelves. It was hard to find a lot of staple meat products. I don’t know this for sure, but I feel like the Turkey industry may have seen an increase in sales during the spring when people were buying food in fear of a complete shutdown. I also feel like people are gonna buy turkeys whether or not there is a dollar or two increase in price. Thanksgiving is filled with traditions that have been handed down generation by generation, I think the turkey industry may actually be helped in a way by the Corona Virus outbreak, more smaller parties, more turkey sales.
ReplyDeleteThis is a really unique topic yet something to talk about. I like how you shared both sides explaining how it could go one way or the other. Either one would make sense to happen, but maybe it won’t affect it as much? I’m really interested in seeing what the results will be after Thanksgiving.
ReplyDeleteI know my extended family used to eat one turkey but now we're all eating separate turkeys. With this anecdote the demand for turkeys increased about four fold and due to the nature of perfectly competitive markets and the elasticity of the market I think this could be great for the industry. I can imagine that the barriers for entry are low but I wonder if demand for hunting permits will also increase. Because of these factors I can’t imagine price increasing too much because these markets are price takers and the more firms entering the industry the more current firms are expected to maintain turkey prices.
ReplyDelete