Taylor Vander Wyst
Mrs. Straub
AP Economics - Insight
21 March 2016
How the Zika Virus is Affecting Spring Break Plans
People are anxiously waiting for spring break and packing their bags for a much needed vacation--however, they may want to consider unpacking their bags if they are traveling to a tropical location. Over the past couple months, the zika virus has been emerging in Mexico, Brazil, and the Caribbean. The Aedes mosquito species carries the zika virus which can cause harm to women and their babies (About). While growing in a mother who is infected with the zika virus, the baby can develop microcephaly which is a condition where the head is significantly smaller than the rest of their body. This can lead to many other birth defects as well (About). Because of this risk, it has become difficult for people to decide whether or not to go on vacation because the trade offs are so extreme.
The zika virus is transmitted when someone gets bitten by the Aedes mosquito species. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, symptoms can include fever, rash, and joint pain. Since these symptoms are so minor, many people may not even know they contracted the virus--which is why it is so dangerous for women who plan to get pregnant. If someone takes the risk and travels to a country with the zika virus, some preventative measures to take are to wear long sleeve shirts and use bug repellant often. Hotel owners and managers have also been taking precautions by spraying more often to ensure that guests are safe (Mindock). Here is a map showing the countries that have been affected with the zika virus. The purple areas are where the virus has spread. Based on its proximity to the United States, it may not be long before the zika virus invades our borders.
Spring breakers are strongly advised to take precautions from the Center for Disease Control to determine if the risk is too great to travel. But canceling the vacation can be very costly since some resorts and airlines don’t offer refunds. Fortunately, airlines such as United Airlines, American Airlines, and JetBlue are offering refunds for women with doctors excuses (Vora). However, the other family members without a doctor’s excuse still have to pay. Jack Ezon, the president of the New York travel company Ovation Vacations, says that he “has had more than 50 cancellations for trips to the Caribbean and Mexico,” (Vora). If the zika virus continues to worsen, these numbers could increase. Since there are less vacationers willing to travel, the spending multiplier will decrease, thus resulting in less money circulating throughout these countries. Less people staying at resorts and hotels may also result in workers being laid off, leaving them frictionally unemployed. Then those unemployed laborers off will be in a job search. In St. Martin, 85% of the workers are employed by tourism directly or indirectly. They depend on tourists to make a living (Mindock). For poorer islands that make up the Caribbean, cash flow is essential to their GDP. In fact, tourism in Barbados makes up 36% of their GDP (Mandock). If more and more people avoid vacation destinations in the Caribbean, their GDP would significantly decrease which would negatively affect their economy.
Unless we can stop this problem and find a cure for the zika virus, increasing numbers of tourists might cancel their spring break trips for fear of the negative health effects for mothers and babies. For those who do not cancel their trips, extreme precautions must be taken to ensure that their spring break trips are safe.
Works Cited
“About Zika Virus Disease.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 22 Feb. 2016. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
Mindock, Clark. “Will the Zika Virus Hurt Tourism in the Caribbean?” International Business Times. Ibt Media Inc., 27 Jan. 2016. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
Vora, Shivani. “How the Zika Virus is Affecting Travel.” The New York Times. The New York Times, 28 Jan. 2016. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
As statistics are showing, symptoms from the Zika virus may not show up til 7 days after a victim has been bitten by an infected mosquito. I am curious if some of these illnesses that have been occurring on cruise ships in recent years are actually symptoms from all these different viruses? Your article mentioned that 85% of the local workers are employed by tourism. Just imagine if word got out that cruises were potentially life threatening. The cruise travel business generates $37 billion a year. Imagine how that would crush the revenue generated for those little islands and tourist stops. Also, Rio is getting ready for the 2016 Olympics. They are anticipating bringing in $4.4 million in revenue. What precautions, if any, can be made to protect the people that are going to be flooding that city?
ReplyDeleteThis is a big topic in the news recently. It is really scary because I am going to Mexico for spring break. I have also heard that scientists do not know how long the virus stays in a woman's system so it could be years until it fades away. I never really thought about how this situation would affect the spending multiplier. It obviously would've affected the GDP because consumer spending would decrease for all the vacation spots. This article was very interesting and it was pretty cool to see how you related it to macroeconomics!
ReplyDeleteI had no idea how bad the zika virus has gotten in such a short time! That is scary that it could soon make its way to the United States. I just went to Mexico last year and I would have considered canceling my flight if the zika virus had made an outbreak at that time. However, it would have been a little difficult to do because my family would have had to go back to the currency exchange to receive cash back for our pesos to return to the U.S. medium of exchange. I wonder if some citizens in Mexico will soon move to different countries in order to avoid this virus. If they do, they will become part of the unemployment rate as they quit their jobs and seek to find another that is more promising.
ReplyDeleteThis is very interesting because this virus is just spreading so rapidly. When I went on vacation 2 months ago, there was talk of the zika virus but it hadn't spread to the places I was visiting but now it's there! Like you mentioned, a lot of the Caribbean islands are dominated by tourism and if this virus continues to spread it will really crush their economy. I hope this situation gets more under control because right now, i'm not so hopeful!
ReplyDeleteGreat topic, it's interesting to think about how easily cash flow can be affected in a particular location. Because aggregate demand decreases, the GDP is decreased. This is a good topic to consider for macro, especially if there is no cure for the virus yet. However, if a cure or treatment is found soon, it won't have a significant affect on GDP in the long-run. If the US does not obtain the virus in the next year, it should be expected that the immigration rate will increase, as people move to the United States in search of a safe environment, the unemployment rate of the US will also increase. Great post, I'm going to Guatemala for Spring break and will have to be cautious during my trip!
ReplyDeleteThis topic is very interesting because it reminds me of what happened with the Swine Flu or Ebola. I feel like the situation will be terminated before it enters the United States. I think it would be interesting to compare the population of those infectious mosquitos to the other species. It may be a very rare type of mosquito. I think it is interesting how you tied this topic into the economy for spring break outside of the US border. Great post!
ReplyDeleteWow. That's super scary because I leave for Mexico tomorrow! I'm hoping the measures aren't to extreme once I'm there and it's a overstatement like Ebola was. But I will definitely take precautions. I also wonder what measures doctors are taking to see if non pregnant women can be affected.
ReplyDeleteI thought your article was very interesting I didn't know that the zika virus was such a problem and that many people going on vacation will have to plan accordingly to stay safe. This could consist of a shot, bug repellent or nets. Also the rapid spread of the virus makes almost any tropical destination eligible for the out break of the virus. Overall Taylor you did an outstanding job contenting this virus to spring break activities!
ReplyDeleteI would have never guessed that the Zika virus would affect countries as much as it has been lately. Like you said this has been the hot topic lately concerning traveling to tropical countries. And to see how this really affects the countries for example tourism in the Barbados makes up about 36% of their GDP. As the number decrease do the the decrease in the demand due to the fact of the Zika virus will really impact the smaller countries the rely on tourism. But then this bring up the question is after spring break if that will allow the virus to travel in border considering the symptoms are not noticeable one could walk within the boards with mosquitoes in their luggage as well as with the virus which could cause more harm. Also how will this affect the fertility rate in other countries that have this virus? Will this cause more people to travel to places that don’t have this virus yet? Overall you did a really good job showing the economic impacts the the Zika virus has on the economy.
ReplyDeleteIt's crazy to see how a virus that can go by so undetected can cause so much damage to pregnancies, families, and even economies in this state of emergency. Hopefully anyone planning on travelling to these regions over spring break take the necessary precautions so that this issue can be contained and dealt with. You did a good job in explaining exactly what the problem is, and how a virus can be so detrimental on a local economies of the region it is affecting, as well as on a global scale.
ReplyDeleteWow I had heard of the Zika virus but I had no idea how fast it had spread so this is very fascinating for me especially since my family is going to Mexico. I guess this whole thing will cause an increased demand for insect repellent which could be good for those companies, but I also have confidence in the CDC's ability to contain the virus and prevent it from affecting the U.S. too significantly. Overall I still believe that tropical locations will stil see good profits from Spring break but like you said it makes sense that their total profits may be slightly less than in past years.
ReplyDeleteIt's so interesting how one virus can take the world by storm. The Zika virus is certainly will affect many travel plans for those going to Central America but maybe not in the most obvious way. Rather than impacting how many people will fly to these destinations, the demand for vaccines will rise. However, it will depend on each individual's choice regarding vaccination and traveling. Some of my friend's are going to Guatemala over break and are not concerned because they are properly vaccinated and the Zika virus is only fatal for women carrying babies.
ReplyDeleteSomething like this is not uncommon to hear? After so many years of new diseases showing up, stopping peoples plans in their tracks again and again. But this one seems to be the easiest to avoid, yes? If those going to these area's of infection were to simply be informed to take a few more extra precautions when going on their trips. And when going back home, they will be able to talk to their primary care doctor about how to find out if they have the disease. But I would think that I would be best for those expecting to avoid going on vacation in any of these areas this year.
ReplyDeleteSomething like this doesn't seem like it would HAVE to stop you vacations, but just put a little more awareness behind it, and it would absolutely suck if because people were too scared to go on vacation, that others should lose their jobs or loss money? When at the end of the they, it can be easily fixed with extra efforts.
Something like this is not uncommon to hear? After so many years of new diseases showing up, stopping peoples plans in their tracks again and again. But this one seems to be the easiest to avoid, yes? If those going to these area's of infection were to simply be informed to take a few more extra precautions when going on their trips. And when going back home, they will be able to talk to their primary care doctor about how to find out if they have the disease. But I would think that I would be best for those expecting to avoid going on vacation in any of these areas this year.
ReplyDeleteSomething like this doesn't seem like it would HAVE to stop you vacations, but just put a little more awareness behind it, and it would absolutely suck if because people were too scared to go on vacation, that others should lose their jobs or loss money? When at the end of the they, it can be easily fixed with extra efforts.
Although the Zika virus is decreasing the number of spring break travelers to Mexico and surrounding areas, I still went to Mexico for break. For me, the reward greatly outweighed the risk. It is no doubt that the virus will spread to the United States in the near future. But, as always, America will persevere. Overall, I thought that your post was very interesting, and included great economic information. I think that it would have been cool had you included more specific information about the drops in travelers over spring break due to the virus, and its result on the local GDP of Mexico and the surrounding areas. It would have also been interesting to research what percentage that tourists take part of of a nation's GDP. Overall though, I thought that your post was insightful and had strong economic terminology. Nice job!
ReplyDeleteFor people like, the risk of taking a spring break trip to Mexico was relatively low, as he is unable to and does not plan on becoming pregnant soon. I think you may have underestimated the negative effects of Zika on tourism as young women planning on having children are the only people Zika poses a significant risk to. I could be wrong however, and it would've been interesting to see if your predictions are supported by the data from this spring. If Zika is a negative externality of sorts to travelers the Mexican government could offer incentives or subsidies to bring tourism back to its normal level.
ReplyDeleteWhile this is a very real problem, this virus is harmful to only specific types of people. For this, most people would probably be alright traveling for Spring Break. However, it is scary to realize that people who contract this virus may not even know they have it furthering its affected regions. If this continues to spread, Zika may become a problem that the government officials may have to address. Overall, this post was rather intriguing and provided great insight into the negative affects of the Zika virus.
ReplyDeleteI didn't know anything about this and haven't heard of it anywhere. This is kinda scary knowing I leave for Mexico in 3 days, and I'll be there for a week. Now I'm hoping I don't get bit by any mosquito while I'm down there cause I don't feel like dealing with a fever when it's 80 degrees out. Knowing that there has been 50 cancellations is not good for our economy, because that's a lot of money taking away from airline companies, which means not as money is pushed into the economy from that, because a typical mexico trip can be about $600 per ticket for round trip.
ReplyDeleteMost people would be fine if they traveled for spring break because it only affects certain people. It is a serious issue though. It could spread very quickly without us even noticing it until it's too late. Zika's government need to address this problem before it gets out of hand.
ReplyDeleteEven though the zika virus is being spread throughout countries my family still went to Puerto Rico for spring break. Honestly I was scared to go because of the side effects it gives people but once I got there I didn't see a single mosquito. The amount of bug spray we packed ended up being unnecessary. I could see why pregnant women would refrain from going to these places due to the side effects it has on their babies. But for people who aren't expecting to have a child, these places are still safe to visit for a relaxing vacation.
ReplyDelete-Kristie
This topic is similar to the response to the Ebola outbreak, however, like your article addressed, has more of an impact on tourism. Your use of information on the Zika virus added to the evidence you used supporting why the Zika virus affects the economy, however, I would argue that the Zika virus generally didn't affect the tourism market significantly, because there are opportunity costs involved, so while a pregnant woman may consider traveling elsewhere, I'm sure the other portion of the demographics would consider travelling somewhere tropical for spring break to outweigh the risk. It would be interesting to see if the unemployment rate in these areas was actually affected after spring break! Overall, great piece and nice use of evidence that fully informs your reader.
ReplyDelete