By: Parker Sefcik
Ever since
I was a small child, talk of the world’s rapidly decreasing oil supply has been
brought up just as frequently as politics and local sports teams. It is a
situation deeply worried and talked about by many, but the question still
stands: Will we ever run out of oil? The answer is yes, the earth holds a
limited supply of non-renewable resources so eventually we will need to rely on
a different energy supply, but a better question is if we will run out of oil
in the near future. Although many environmentalists believe our supply is
quickly coming to an end, the true answer is that we won’t be seeing an end to
oil supply in at least 1,000 years and probably longer.
The most basic equation to figure out how much oil we
have left is to take the number of barrels we extract per year from the total
oil supply left, which then gives us the number of years we have left by
dividing the total amount by the number of barrels we use each year. This is,
however, a pessimistic equation because it doesn't take into account the newer
technologies being invented that will allow us to dig deeper and obtain more
oil. But what if these technologies aren't invented and the supposedly limited
oil supply is actually limited? Based on the law of supply, if there is a
smaller supply for a good, that good will go up in price. Once the oil supply
starts to diminish, the price of oil will rise and eventually sky rocket
because of its value and scarceness. This sudden increase in price will cause
many consumers to rely on inferior goods like public transportation and
bicycles rather than cars. Only the rich will be able to purchase oil and even
then will they do it in moderation and purchase much smaller quantities. This
decrease in demand will then help preserve the oil supply, allowing it to last
for hundreds of more years until it has finally vanished.
There is
also the possibility of creating an alternate power supply and a substitute for
oil. Development for a substitution is already being researched by many firms
because of how much revenue it will promise once an alternative is invented. A
near extinction of oil will motivate scientists to work more diligently to
create a substitution. Once a cheaper alternative is produced, the demand of
oil will go down to almost no demand and will therefore save any last remaining
oil supply we have. Even if it takes hundreds of years to invent a
substitution, society will be able to adapt to the decreasing oil supplies and
will carpool more and use other means of transportation that doesn't involve
the use of oil, such as walking or riding a bicycle. Based on basic economics,
it is simple to see that our oil supply will not run out in the near future,
and if an alternative fuel supply is found, may never run out through all of
humanities existence.
World Oil Supply and Demand. N.p., n.d. Web. 28 Oct. 2013.
<http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/World_Oil_Supply_and_Demand.htm>.
I think that this is a really relevant topic that brings up a good point. It is really interesting that we have 1000 years of oil left, because people always act like we only have a year left or so. I agree that the law of supply and demand is going to become the pressing issue with oil. It will be interesting to see the new technologies that develop because of this problem and how there supply and demand is going to affect society.
ReplyDeleteI do think that the best option would be to find an alternate for oil and if that was something renewable and easy to access it would be interesting to see where the price would be then because the demand would still be high but there would be a lot more of a supply available.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny that you say that comment about how people talk about oil as much as they do and thinking about it, it's just funny because it's so TRUE! People constantly talk about prices of gas and oil because nearly everyone in our country uses oil EVERYDAY! Whether it be to drive to work or to cut their lawn, blow leaves all the tasks that we take for granted end up using that precious supply of oil! What is it going to turn into when oil companies realize that there is little to no oil completely left and the prices of oil all of a sudden rise $1 a day for example? What is going to happen to the gas stations? The consumers? SOOO many questions to answer just about oil. Which makes sense on why so many people talk about it so freuqently
ReplyDeleteOil is just such a large part of our lives that I have difficult time thinking of a world without it. I feel like we will never run out of it and that it will just keep coming from the endless supply in the earth. Yet we do not have an endless amount of oil. Hopefully we will be able to find new ways to give us the energy we need without a shocking change in lifestyle.
ReplyDeleteNice job Parker! I agree with you when you say that we won't run out of oil anytime in the near future. Even though the world uses a lot of oil everyday, I still believe that there is a lot of oil left on this Earth that we still have yet to discover. I also believe that we will find another source of fuel in the near future, that will help us not use as much oil as we do.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your statement that we won't run out of fuel anytime soon, and it quite possibly may not even be in our generation! But the fact of the matter is is that eventually we will run out of oil, its just a matter of when. The fact that there are firms trying to create alternative sources to oil is great, but how long will it take them to figure it out? Oil is definitely one of the most common items taken for granted, and without it, the economy could very well go down the drain and in a hurry.
ReplyDeleteI do agree with you that we need to find a new fuel source. The thing is what type of fuel source can compete with oil. The reason why I say this because if there was a new source just as good and renewable why aren't we using it now. We know oil will run out sometime in the next 1000 years so why not save it. Say scientist found a new source that is renewable and is just as efficient. Are they going to hold up on the fuel source until needed or wait for oil to run low. It will be interesting on what happens and hopefully we find a new resource in our generation.
ReplyDeleteThe economical, smart thing to do in terms of our oil crisis would be to find an alternative source. Americans need to take charge if they don't want to face an oil ban. The government will possibly have to ban oil if we begin to get such a low amount of oil in the US. Inevitably, we will run out of oil yet why wouldn't we take precautions to make sure that it isn't going to happen in the next three generations. To be economically productive we need to find secondary sources in order to prevent complete oil eradication in the US.
ReplyDeleteTechnically this is a correct argument however, there is a major difference between the total amount of oil left on earth and the amount that is economically worth pursuing. Eventually, before we reach the end of oil on earth, it will be economically inefficient to pursue those final barrels as other alternative energy sources will be more developed and more cost-effective. Therefore, the real argument isn't how long we have till we run the oil dry, but rather how long it will take before other energy sources become more cost-efficient.
ReplyDeleteThe worry about oil seems wasteful. Even though we might run out of oil it really wouldn't matter. There are plenty other sources or energy that just aren't worth developing or mining. For example is we could switch to electric powered system but at the current moment the mc of doing this is not worth demand. In the future we might switch to alternative energy but at the current moment it is not worth the additional cost
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ReplyDeleteI'm happy you addressed this pressing topic. It's rather obnoxious how people talk about how our oil supply will expire after a year or so; however, our time is running out which calls for engineers and scientist to step up and develop new and improved technologies that will cure this problem. I am interested to see how these technologies develop and how we'll find a solution to this developing problem.
ReplyDeleteI had no idea that we had that much oil left, but we really need to come up with a better solution. As we continue to run out of oil, the pices will get higher and higher even if there is no real chance of running out. In just the last 10 years hybrid and all electric cars have gotten extremly popular. The days of purchasing V10 and V12 cars are pretty much over, with the rising cost of oil, car companies are turning to making more fuel efficent cars and are making a fortune doing it. In the future I predict that oil will no longer be as essential as it is today, the real money is in finding an oil free soultion that is easy and cheap to integrate.
ReplyDeleteI think that your thought on oil never running out is a nice one to have, but ultimately unattainable. While the high prices of oil will force alternative fuel supplies to be created, we will still run out of oil as Augie said, because not all of the oil on the earth can be reached to drill nor is all of it worth drilling. However, I can agree with you that we will not run out of oil anytime soon because of the law of demand.
ReplyDeleteYour argument towards the end of oil being quite a ways off is definitely valid, however, I think it'll be much sooner than everyone may realize. As you mentioned, technology will continue to advance--and yes, we'll be able to extract more with new technology--but this new technology will also demand the oil at a much greater rate. We also can't forget that population isn't anywhere near declining either, with a greater population comes a greater demand.
ReplyDeleteThis is very promising to me, because a lot of oil is used everyday; and I was under the same impression that we were quickly running out. It's quite a relief honestly. To know that something I use on a daily basis will not run out in my life time. Not that I'm not welcome to substitutes of course! If something else can do the same job and for cheaper while providing economic expansion. Then I will definitely buy.
ReplyDeleteI think ths dodges the real problem! It doesn't matter how much oil is left, the fact of the matter is Earth can't handle 1000 more years of CO2 emmissions. When, whether in 100 years or 50 years, oil runs out, the economy will be devistated if there is nothing ready to replace it. We should start perparing now for the inevitable now.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you Aidan, we all worry about the oil running out, but, although we do think of the atmosphere, we never stop to think what will run out first, the oil or the atmosphere. The air is only getting worse. In order to keep our economy from collapsing when we realize this, we need to speed up the transition to renewable energy. Every minute we wait millions of cars pump CO2 into the atmosphere. The time to act is now.
DeleteI thought this was a really important topic, and it is important to talk about because there are so many drivers. But the thing that I would think is that with the depletion of oil, it is creating so many jobs for chemical engineers or just engineers to create and investigate alternate fuel sources. It is well written though, good job!
ReplyDeleteIt's really important to address this topic because while we are running out of oil, it's extremely slowly. The fact that we still have 1000 years left of oil is good news, but I think that takes into account the current population. When scientists say that we only have 100 years left of oil, they're thinking of the exponential population growth we're currently having, so unless we stop that, I think we actually might be running out of oil sooner than we think, but definitely not 100 years left.
ReplyDeleteEven though 1000 years is a long time until we run out of oil we have to take into consideration that every year we extract more and more oil. I do agree with you though that we probably won't run out soon. Unlike Mr. Douglass I don't think World War 3 will start over the last drop of oil. By the time it is an issue we will hopefully have found an alternative energy source. Good topic!
ReplyDeleteIt's reassuring to know that the oil supply is expected to last for around 1000 years. I had never thought of the fact that improving technology could help us to discover other reserves. However, like other people have said, I feel as if our increase in technology added to our increase in oil dependency could make the amount that we use annually increase rapidly. Who knows what the future holds? Soon, those 1000 years could turn into 100, and then 10. It's better to act now and try to find some other energy source rather than suffer through the risk of waiting.
ReplyDeletei think that we should find alternative fuel sources to power things such as buildings now, and reserve the fuel for vehicles since there really isn't any good alternative to gas. they have electric cars, but they are expensive and cannot be afforded by most average people. plus they are generally tiny and not useful for transporting things or many people.
ReplyDeleteIt's crucial that we find an alternative fuel source because majority of the world doesn't drive vehicles. Once these countries develop enough where most citizens drive vehicles, oil will be one of the most scarce products and prices for fuel will skyrocket to prices unimaginable. The only way to prevent something like that happening is finding another fuel source, because it's almost inevitable that we will run out of oil with more countries in demand for it.
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