Here’s the Deal with the Green New Deal
By Amaya Seidl
Since its public introduction just over two weeks ago, the Green New Deal, proposed by congresswoman and self-proclaimed radical Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has stirred up a great deal of controversy across the political spectrum. The ambitious resolution calls for a drastic reformation of the US economy in order to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately slow climate change, in addition to various indirectly related policy goals, such as a job guarantee, food and housing security and various social justice initiatives.
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Highlights of the proposal include eliminating combustible engines, largely abandoning air travel in favor of nationwide high-speed rail, and either updating current buildings to satisfy a goal of optimal water and energy efficiency, or constructing new buildings that satisfy these standards. To address the particular burden such dramatic changes would place upon minority communities, Ocasio-Cortez included the promise of “providing higher education, high-quality health care, and affordable, safe, and adequate housing to all”. All of these proposals, of course, would require massive funding and an expansion of government power that is perhaps even more daunting.
When examining the GND proposal, it’s easy to see that it includes a whole lot of answers to the question: “What?”, listing a plethora of bold economic feats, but only limited and vaguely-worded explanations for the question: “How?” and no indication of an answer to: “How much?” when it comes to cost estimations. Thus, the resolution has raised the eyebrows of politicians, economists, and civilians alike considering its immense cost.
To predict the answer to “How much?”, former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin concluded: “The first cut at a grand total runs from $51.1 to $92.9 trillion between 2020 and 2029. Even if the estimates are 5 to 10 times too high (and I suspect they are more likely too low), it is hard to wrap one’s head around numbers these large.” These estimates indicate an annual cost per household of up to $650,000, which is no joke. Beyond this, the opportunity cost of transforming the entire economy within a small window of time at the expense of some of its largest industries is inestimable.
When it comes to answering the “How?” question, AOC and her supporters rely on brief and nonspecific arguments. Occasio-Cortez herself answers: “The same way we paid for the New Deal... The same way we paid for World War II and all our current wars”, dodging the nuts-and-bolts of it all.
The reality is that FDR’s original New Deal, whose name the GND is inspired from, costed upwards of $50 billion, but according to Jim Powell of Forbes, “We aren't paying down these obligations inherited from the old New Deal. On the contrary, the total tab keeps getting bigger every year. While the old New Deal involved unprecedented peacetime spending during the 1930s, its current escalating obligations dwarf that spending.”
Eventually, AOC referenced specific funding strategies for her proposals, such as the Federal Reserve expanding credit and the introduction of new “investments” and public banks. Still, she quickly retreats to the argument that it’s not the cost of the GND that we should be concerned with, but instead the massive societal benefits that it will bring in the long run, and such emotional rhetoric dominates the pro-GND sphere.
The Green New Deal has gained the support of numerous democrat presidential candidates, including Kamala Harris (CA) and Elizabeth Warren (MA). However, more moderate representatives question the feasibility of such a bold plan, but support its concepts loosely. When questioned by Politico, Speaker Nancy Pelosi remarked: “It will be one of several or maybe many suggestions that we receive. The green dream or whatever they call it, nobody knows what it is, but they're for it right?”, suggesting the GND shows no particular promise. Predictably, Republicans oppose the Green New Deal, mainly due to its liberal economic policies.
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Support it or not, AOC and her Green New Deal are missing a major piece of the puzzle. It’s illogical and dangerous to pursue such a daring resolution without weighing the opportunity cost against the benefits. Perhaps its most concerning element is the theme of big government, which permeates the entire resolution and rightfully raises questions about underlying motives to increase government power. Ultimately, it seems the American people, republican and democrat alike, simply aren’t ready to sacrifice the economic freedom characteristic of a free market economy and emphasized in our current mixed economy in favor of a dramatic shift towards a command economy model that would inevitable with the adaptation of the Green New Deal. In the end, it comes down to cost-- both economic and ideological.
Works Cited
“Original Green New Deal FAQ” NPR, NPR, apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=5729035-Green-New-Deal-FAQ.
“Green New Deal Report.” Data For Progress, Data For Progress, www.dataforprogress.org/green-new-deal#afford.
Grunwald, Michael, et al. “The Trouble With the 'Green New Deal'.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 15 Jan. 2019, www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/15/the-trouble-with-the-green-new-deal-223977.
Kurtzleben, Danielle. “Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Releases Green New Deal Outline.” NPR, NPR, 7 Feb. 2019, www.npr.org/2019/02/07/691997301/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-releases-green-new-deal-outline.
Natter, Ari. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal Could Cost $93 Trillion.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 25 Feb. 2019, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/group-sees-ocasio-cortez-s-green-new-deal-costing-93-trillion.
Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria. “Text - H.Res.109 - 116th Congress (2019-2020): Recognizing the Duty of the Federal Government to Create a Green New Deal.” Congress.gov, 8 Feb. 2019, www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text.
Powell, Jim. “The 'Old' New Deal Still Isn't Paid For.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 19 June 2013, www.forbes.com/2009/02/11/new-deal-stimulus-opinions-contributors_0211_jim_powell.html#4ae4403a45b3.